Check this out:

Statement as of 9:01 AM PDT on March 22, 2011

... Another weather system will move through southwest California
late Wednesday...

An upper level low pressure system approaching from the northwest
will move through southwest California late Wednesday. There will be
an increasing chance of light showers ahead of the cold front
Wednesday. Periods of moderate precipitation over and west of the
mountains late Wednesday afternoon and night as the cold front moves
through. Light showers will linger into Thursday. Local strong gusty
winds will accompany this system... mainly in the mountains and
deserts where there will be wind gusts 35 to 45 mph.

Preliminary precipitation estimates are about a third to half an
inch in most areas over and west of the mountains. However... there
will be local larger amounts to about an inch on the southwest
facing slopes of the San Bernardino Mountains. The high deserts
should get less than a quarter of an inch of rain with a few
hundredths of an inch in the low deserts.

The snow level will lower to about 4000 feet north and 4500 feet
south Wednesday night. There should be local snow accumulations of
about 4 to 8 inches above 6000 feet... about 2 to 4 inches from
5000 feet to 6000 feet... and a dusting from 4000 feet to 5000 feet.

The rain will cause slick roads and may cause local rock or mud
slides. There could be flooding of poorly drained low lying areas.
Snow... blowing snow and dense fog will make travel hazardous in the
mountains. People should stay informed on this approaching weather
system.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think we may have to let the weather dictate our ride plans this Thursday. I'm happy to meet at Filippis for pizza, but I can't imagine how we can ride in the mud that will certainly be present from the Sunday/Monday showers plus those from Wednesday/Thursday. Call me a sissy if you want, but I think the most important thing is a clean drivetrain. (right Pete?)

RM